Article 50 Triggered – Now What?
March 30, 2017
Theresa May triggered Article 50 this week, submitting her letter to the European Council officially announcing Britain’s intention to leave the European Union. She aims for a “special partnership” with the EU “that takes in both economic and security cooperation,” and proposes a “bold and ambitious” free trade agreement between the UK and the EU.
In 2016, nearly 50% of all UK exported and imported goods were traded with six countries: the United States, Germany, France, Netherlands, the Republic of Ireland, and China. Four of these countries belong in the EU. Clearly, triggering Article 50 is going to cause some market confusion and increased volatility. The EU and UK have two years to negotiate terms, but a long period of uncertainty could increase tension and uncertainty. At the same time, giving the UK free trade with EU members could feel unfair to member countries, driving resentment and anti-UK sentiment.
Commodity trading will continue
In the end, all commodity traders can do is monitor the situation and be prepared to address increased volatility and adapt to changing markets. They can navigate increased volatility by investing in advanced commodity analytics:
1. Adopting a commodity-specific intelligence engine for advanced analytics. Generic business intelligence tools do not provide answers to the questions commodities companies need to ask, like ‘what type of profits or losses will result in the future if I need to change my trading strategy?’ Only commodity-specific solutions answer the right questions.
2. Adding predictive analytics. Analysis that provides trends from last week are not useful to a trader trying to decide whether or not to book an order now. Analysis that compares different alternatives and forecasts how to make a better deal is.
3. Choosing self-service analytics. For truly useful analytics, business users should be able to create their own analytics. In fast moving markets, delays caused by relying on the IT department to create analytics render the results useless.
4. Adopting analytics provided on mobile devices. Volatile markets don’t wait for you to reach your desk. You need decision support when you need it wherever you are.
Technology to help
Eka’s Commodity Analytics Cloud aggregates critical data from multiple systems (including CTRM and ETRM software, ERP, CRM, treasury, accounting, and spreadsheets), and quickly processes and analyzes that data for critical insights. It provides the insights necessary to operate profitably in volatile markets.